Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been in a short-term downtrend long enough to put the greater bull trend in jeopardy, especially if current levels are lost. If the leading cryptocurrency by market cap has already concluded its market cycle at $65,000, then the recent bull market will be the asset’s weakest on record, and among the shortest in the timeframe.
As part of PrimeXBT’s ongoing educational content focused on teaching traders how to read top technical analysis tools, we are presenting our list of top five bull market technical signals that were used to spot the beginning of the bull run, along with some information about if the bull run is over or not based on these same signals.
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Charting The Bull Market Breakout And Early Beginning
When it comes to technical analysis, a new cycle starts when a bottom is put in. This price floor creates the foundation in which the next cycle begins. Such a bottom is only put in in hindsight, but there are often signals that tell traders when the trend has strengthened, risk has been reduced, and it is time to potentially take action.
The below list follows several tools that can be used on any asset, BItcoin, cryptocurrency, traditional asset, or otherwise. Here are the tools, along with a brief introduction to what they are, and an explanation on how to use them to understand when a bull market breakout has occurred.
Buy Downtrend Breakout Confirmation Or After All-Time High
There are two primary ways to watch for when to buy an asset or go long. We are never an advocate of trying to catch falling knives, so waiting for confirmation that the trend is changing with a breakout of a downtrend resistance line is a smart, albeit riskier move.
Note how in 2019, Bitcoin rallied, only to be rejected and create a second downtrend line. That’s why a technically safer move is to buy or go long after a new all-time high is made. This tends to send speculative assets like cryptocurrencies into price discovery mode. With the bullish trend now in overdrive, profits tend to arrive fast and furiously.
Monthly RSI Bull Zone Leads To Largest Bitcoin Gains
If you want a simple and surefire formula to make money from Bitcoin and rarely lose any, buy a breakout of the monthly RSI into overbought levels. Overbought levels on the RSI are normally a signal to sell in most assets, but on such a high timeframe it only suggests that the trend is the strongest. When the RSI falls back out of the so-called bull zone, it is time to then sell or go short Bitcoin.
Note, that the duration of the RSI extending above overbought levels lasted much longer during past cycles. Bitcoin also failed to achieve such a feat during the 2019 rally, which could explain the rejection and failure to make new highs. When new highs were made, the RSI surges, which aligns well with the drawn trendlines referenced in the last section.
Crypto Momentum Changes And The LMACD
A rather easy way to understand the momentum behind the trend is by watching for the LMACD to fall or rise above the indicator’s zero line. The zero line is essentially the neutral line in which the sand bulls or bears must pass to control the market momentum.
The chart above shows that whenever Bitcoin has passed above the zero line on the logarithmic version of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, it resulted in a bearish or bullish phase.
Gauging Speculative Trend Strength With The ADX
The Average Directional Index is a trend strength measuring tool, which tells us a bull market is here when the ADX (in blue) climbs above a reading of 20. The ADX is often accompanied by a negative and positive directional indicator, depicted in red and green.
To tell when the trend is both strong and bullish, the positive green indicator must be above the red negative indicator, in addition to a reading of 20 or higher. The higher the reading, the stronger the trend, but also the closer the trend is to potentially end.
Riding The Bollinger Bands To New High After High
The middle Bollinger Band is a 20-period simple moving average that can act as resistance or support or even a signal to go long or short. Note how in the 2016 and 2017 bull market, Bitcoin never closed below the middle line.
During the latest cycle, Bitcoin has made several candles close below it, which could suggest more downside is ahead in crypto. Bollinger Bands also measure volatility which is highest during a bull market. Also, note how the bottom band falls completely off the chart when a bull market is in full force.
Trading The Next Bull Or Bear Market With PrimeXBT
There is no telling at this point if the new bear market is here or if the bull market will continue. Each of the above charts shows the last cycle compared to the current cycle. There is no denying that the recent bull market appears truncated by past bull market standards. Other important factors are also missing from what would normally signal a top to the Bitcoin bull run, such as trading Litecoin at new all-time highs.
Many of these indicators also reached overheated levels this cycle, which signaled the end of the bull run, so the market is currently mixed as to what might happen in the days ahead. If Bitcoin can make a higher high on monthly timeframes, the bull market will be back on. However, a lower low is just as possible at the current moment so anything could happen.
Watching these signals closely along with other indicators offered for free as part of the suite of advanced trading tools and built-in charting software offered by the award-winning trading platform. Traders utilize these tools to excel in trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, stock indices, forex, and commodities like gold, oil, and silver, all from a single account.